Photo credit: Louis Vest

…But what about the slowing global market?

First the good news: According to a recent report, import volume at the nation’s major container ports will be up 25% (or more) in the first half of 2010. Last month saw an estimated 17% jump in TEUs in U.S. ports; this month is projected to have a 30% increase — and according to some people the future looks even better:

“This forecast assumes that we are not in a double-dip recession and that a recovery is underway. Although 2009 saw decreased import activity levels, the forecast for 2010 points towards growth,” says Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, which performed the analysis along with the National Retail Federation.

But according to Bernard Hoekman, director of the World Bank’s trade group, there was actually a “distinct slowdown” in global trade towards the end of 2009.

An article in the most recent Economist lays out why:

“The value of world trade (which is also affected by price and exchange-rate fluctuations) fell slightly in November. A rebound in shipments in and out of some of the world’s busiest ports also faded. Why would the resurgence have fizzled? The best explanation is that third-quarter growth was buoyed by the rebuilding of inventories, which were slashed in the depths of the crisis. That effect may have ebbed.”

Jonathan Gold, the National Retail Federation’s VP for supply chain and customs policy gushed that the rosy forecast was “a dramatic turnaround over what we’ve seen during the past two years.” If he’s right, it will certainly will be.

But until the euro settles down and we know how well ports outside the U.S. are doing, it’s just too soon to tell.